What effect will the trouble in the Arab world have on us? The obvious one is fuel supply and increase in cost .The bigger one is Financial Default.Dubai and Bahrain have both borrowed hundreds of Billions of Dollars to develop their economies into dynamic tourist locations .Dubai has already had to restructure some of its Sovereign debt .Bahrain is leveraged to the hilt .If unrest continues and the Governments of these or other Arab nations are overthrown.Will it be  the straw that broke the camels back and lead to the total collapse of the world banking system as we know it .

WE  PAY

When some of the benign Dictators try to re establish their foot holds in their post revolutionary countries by handing out rewards to those who stood by them in their hour of need and then rebuilding the bombed out shells of Cities destroyed by their own forces .Will we have to pay increased oil prices to fund the Benign Dictator Father Of the Nations survival .Most of these countries only have one commodity to sell OIL .

WOULD THIS BE APPLICABLE TO IRELAND .THIS WOULD SAVE THE LEGAL SYSTEM A SMALL FORTUNE IN LEGAL FEES AND FREE UP OUR COURT SYSTEM FOR MORE SERIOUS CASES.IT WOULD INFLICT AN AUTOMATIC PENALTY ON TO DRUGS USERS AND DISCOURAGE USAGE.THE REVENUE COMMISSIONERS HAVE UNLIMITED POWERS TO COLLECT THEIR DUES AND IN THE CASE THAT YOU DIDNT HAVE THE CASH TO HAND COULD GET A DEDUCTION MADE DIRECTLY FROM YOUR SALARY .THIS WOULD INFORM YOUR EMPLOYER AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO FURTHER SANCTION .THIS IS A REAL DETERRENT.IT WOULD ALSO REMOVE THE BURDEN OF THE STATE HAVING TO PROVE THAT ANY PROPERTY OR MONIES THAT A DRUG DEALER HAD WERE THE PROCEEDS  OF CRIME BEFORE THEY COULD BE CONFISCATED .JUST COLLECT THE TAX DUE .TAX ON A KILO OF COCAIN COULD BE SET AT MILLIONS OF EURO

The Tennessee Drug Tax

The well manicured lawns leading up to the to the imposing buildings alerted everybody to the opulence and the wealth .Entering through the big mahogany doors into the main function room it was obvious this was a special place you could smell the cash .A fine young lady was standing  being prepared for a visit from her lover .Her well combed hair glistened ,her flowing locks had been braided .She had been attended to by many handsome young men and girls .Her every need was catered for,meals ,medical,surgical even emotional she was never left alone somebody was always available to attend to her every need.

Across the road the old red bricked building that was once the county workhouse had been turned into a hospital by the local healthboard.The old lady lay in her bed surrounded by other geriatric patients nine in all .The nurse struggled to cope with attending to everybody .A young local girl mopped up a puddle of piss and removed the shit stained sheets and blankets from old Johns bed .She looked grey and worn out .Her wages had been cut and her electricity bill was overdue.

Across the road the staff had just completed bathing precious as she liked to be called .They had washed every part of her body and blown her dry in preparation for her lovers visit

Old Maureen who was 93 years of age and worked since she was 11 till she retired at 70 was getting a bed bath .Then one of the orderlies inserted a suppository .To deal with a urianatory tract infection that Maureen had .Not even pulling across the screen to protect her dignity from the other patients.

Handsome had arrived in a chauffeur driven customised vehicle and was escorted by his entourage  into the awaiting lady .His excitement raised and he mounted his lady ,seconds later it was all over .Without a backward glance our man retreated to the luxurious carriage and was gone .

In the hospital Paul had just died and the nurse pulled a sheet over his face.Everybody in the hospital was treated the same they were all public patients and had paid for their care through a lifetime of taxes .

Across the road the mare was taken to a paddock  where she would remain for a few weeks until the Vets could confirm that she was in foal .She was a champion race horse and her sutor was a champion also .His owners had been handsomely paid for his services 200,000€ and it was all tax free money .In a full breeding season he might earn 5 or 6 million Euro all tax free.This was as a result of a previous horse loving ministers intervention.

The workers in the stud farm cleaned down the mating parlour sterilising every inch to prevent infection of the next beauty to use the facilities.Talking in an unfamiliar language they completed their task and returned to their billet which was provided by their employer at a subsidised rate from their minimum paid wages.

Lets see if this loop hole is removed in the budget .I doubt it .The big stud farms are mostly in Lowry country .

As we look forward to the birth of the second republic what will it mean for us.The new republic will be ruled by a new set of rules .The rules of least resistance, they will tell us and we wont resist.

With all the money being taken out of the economy we can expect a major contraction in our quality of life.Our bailout will come with strings attached .Policies of cut,slash and deregulate will be forced upon us in return for a helping hand.A contraction of about 30% in living standards can be expected during the lifetime of the next administration assuming they go the distance .In the small print of our bailout agreement ,will be a proposal for deregulation.This deregulation model being the alter on which we were sacrificed in the first instance.

Fine Fails relentless desire for power has led to this sorry impasse .The embracing of the Now defunct Progressive Democrats untried in a small economy free market economic  policies in return for their support in forming a government .Deregulation and letting the market find its own level being the mantra.

One of the mainstays of this flawed model was to reduce the  interference of government on business Deregulate  and unregulate were both considered to be the same thing .The failure of this policy can be demonstrated at the top and bottom of our economy.

The government deregulated/unregulated the banks .They removed the government from responsibility for watching over the banks .Appointed a banking regulator and unleashed the banks to find their own way.Forgetting what the banks had previously done when allowed to divert from standard banking practices.The Insurance Corporation Of Ireland debacle which nearly brought down a previous  administration was forgotten .The poachers were now in total command of the henhouse.

Just in case the ship of state needed to adjust course .Compliant finance ministers were  appointed One such was Charlie Mc Creevie.He who once said “In a number of member states particularly some older ones there is a fear that economic reform will undermine social protection…Such fears is not only misplaced but is counter productive”.With the malice of hindsight we now have to look at the SSIA .This was sold to us as a mechanism to slow down an overheating  economy.in any other economy tax increases would have been applied to put the brakes on spending .We now have to ask the question was this the biggest gamble in Irish political history .Was the purpose of this scheme to boost the capital base of the banks  that backfired.Mc Creevys exodus to Europe should of alerted us . If the SSIA was perceived as a great success amongst his fellow TDs why did he not stay on in the Dail he would of been a certainty for the office of Taoiseach.like many finance ministers before him.Was Mc Creevy aware of the failure of  the free market economic policies that he and the Progressive Democrats had espoused.

The Deregulation/unregulation  of the Irish banking system led to an unlimited inflow of money from over seas lenders to the Irish banks.Ireland became a proving ground for overseas banks and lenders to try out this deregulated/unregulated banking model.It was a no brainer by foreign banks to throw cash at the Irish market.They only had to look back at the record of previous Irish governments to see that if anything went wrong the government would step in and help.The to big to fail idea encouraged them to grow to make sure they were to big to fail.

At the lower end of the economy we have the taxi industry.Progressive Democrat Minister Bobby Molloy deregulated/unregulated this.The taxi industry was an optical exercise in selling the benefits of free market economics  to the public .If deregulation/unregulation of the taxi industry worked it would demonstrate that that the market could find its own level  and could be relied on to regulate itself.How would we judge success in the deregulated/unregulated taxi industry .If people didn’t have to wait to long for a taxi.That would give the illusion of success.No waiting time and a bountiful supply of taxies.No concern for the welfare of the driver or the safety of the passenger.No concern about congestion ,pollution. The influx of unqualified operators into the industry.The inactions of the regulator to achieve one endgame the optical illusion of deregulated/unregulated success.

In banking the illusion of success was written across the skyline in big new buildings. Rows of roof tops all reaching off into the distance financed by Irish banks .Occupied by people who could not affordto own the property but believed that property inflation would negate the negative and result in an ultimate profit for their investment.

Workers who invested in the taxi industry in the hope of providing a job for themselves and a means to  pay for their homes .Have seen their investment wiped out and their prospects of earning a living obliterated by free market deregulation/unregulation.Caused by oversupply.

The free market policy of deregulate/unregulated will always fail .Because it cannot regulate the human element out of the equation .Greed ,Avarice ,Pride  are all human desires and cannot be eliminated by deregulation/unregulation.

In banking the deregulation/unregulation model has failed yet the IMF,ECB will insist on more deregulation/unregulation as part of the conditions for their bailout.In banking the freemarket dictated .That if somebody wanted to borrow money from a bank and the bank could borrow that money off of someone else for less than you are willing to pay them in interest.That was all that mattered. Do the deal there was no regard for the purpose or value of the loan only the profit margin.

In the deregulated /unregulated taxi industry the same rules applied cheap entry with no regard for quality or viability of service.The only difference between the two deregulated/unregulated  industries Is that banks got to big to fail.The taxi industry got too big that it is guaranteed to fail as we know it .

The IMF will insist on more deregulationof services .Transport,Energy,Water,Hospitals,this will lead to a race to the bottom.a minimum of services available without charge.A big reduction in wageswhen we accept this bailout and the regime that goes with it .We can expect to see about a 30%reduction in our incomes over the lifetime of the next Dail if they go the distance.This will lead to a further collapse in property prices which will lead to greater losses for NAMA.and this in turn will lead to a total collapse of the Irish banking system.This is inevitable if we don’t find a way forward and quickly.

The FG policy of divesting of the family silver by selling off state assets like the ESB ,CIE.Coilte and any thing else of value.Is the last throw of the dice to try to avoid total collapse of the state.Ireland needs to exit the Euro currency as soon as possible and set a rate for the Irish currency against the Euro which would allow us to trade out of our difficulties.

We should introduce a working visa exemption for American Citizens.This would incourage American multinationals to invest in Irelandas they could bring in their own management teams.

One of the qualities of the Irish is we understand Grey.Things don’t have to be black or white they can be grey which can be described as dark white or light black.Its this charisteristic that has led to our present predicament.Fine Fail,s lust for power which led them into the grey area of coalition with the PDs.That tempory little arrangement that will now stay with us forever.We possibly have one more chance to get this right and should not be forced into making rash decisions.

The two examples offered of Deregulated/unregulated industries should alert people to the possible outcome of any bailout .After the dust of deregulation /Unregulation settles and we have reached the bottom .It will become obvious that we cannot sustain our low cost low paid economy .The big players will survive and gobble up the small ones .Then prices will increase as all our services will be controlled by monopolies  we will have to pay up .There are no free lunches .Bailout an interesting word .To bailout a sinking ship .Or Bail the price you pay to get out of jail while awaiting your sentence.

I LEFT SCHOOL WHEN  I WAS 12 BEFORE THEY COULD EDUCATE THE INTELLIGENCE OUT OF ME .

About  6years ago I was going to return to school as a mature student and study to be an auctioneer and valuer  (it looked like a good move back then) As a mature student my application would be by interview so I started to read up on the property market in preparation for my interview .It became obvious to me a secondary school dropout that something was wrong very wrong So I prepared my self for my interview armed with all the facts and figures i could muster and a speel about wanting to be able to help people find the house of their dreams .Forgetting that this was an interview to go to collage not get a job.

When I got to the interview they had no interest in what I knew only if I would stick to the course for the full two years.The guy doing the interview told me I had made a good choice of career move as the property market was on the up and he could see it carrying on for some time .He explained that trading up was the biggest earner in the industry .You get to sell the existing premises and possibly find the new one .

I then asked could he not see a problem in the property market .Did he not see the flaw.What flaw  he asked .So I offered this example  Dublin Corporation sold off their housing stock  at great discount to the market .This had reduced the available social housing  .So it had become the norm for working people to buy their own homes.I bought my house for 10400 punt or about 14000Euro in1988.In the height of the boom the house next door to me sold for 240,000 euro .Now where I live is a very working class area people have to work to survive .So I offered this example .I defined working class as an average wage earner.He drives a forklift in a factory .She works in the office in the same place .

INCOME

Him =takehome  460

Her =……………..460

Allow  10% for personal use a pint a paper or a smoke -92 or 41 euro each

Car to get to work  =petrol maintenance insurance purchase price =128 per week

Feed and cloth two adults and two children .Electricity ,Heat ,Tv ,Phone =500 per week

You have 200 a week left to pay for a Mortgage and insurance policy .I calculated that the largest mortgage that you could afford over 25 years and be comfortable that you could make the payments on was 85,000.So my argument was that if all you could afford to pay was 85,000 then the true value of the property was 85,000 and not 240,000 So the thing was that based on your ability to pay the property market was on average 60% overvalued . The man with the degree doing the interview told me I was wrongI believed I was right so when I was offered a place on the course I declined .I backed my own judgement .Now the thing is I left school at twelve and I could see the problem.I would never be able to get a job with a bank im not smart enough for them.For those worried about our average couple .They save the monthly childrens allowance to pay for school books ,Christmas and a weeks holiday in Kilmuckridge

Since I first wrote this things have changed .The new Social Charge ,Property Tax and Water charges will impact greatly on your spending power .I now suggest that a 3 bedroom xcouncil house in Dublin is worth about 60.000€ and you can add a little extra for the availability of local schools ,shops and bus or Luas service . Privately built houses in close proximity to council houses are worth very little more .In some cases the x council house is better proportioned ,better built and has larger gardens .

Two bedroomed apartments are worth considerably less than houses and one bedroomed apartments are probably unsalable.

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Now here is the thing.Homes .ie still quote houses in my estate at 170.000 euro .So they are still overpriced .If the government allow the market to truly find its own true worth the losses incurred by NAMA on their property portfolio will destroy the economic recovery So the catch 22 is do the government allow the market to correct itself or do they introduce new tax cuts or reliefs to protect their investment .If they introduce tax breaks to stimulate sales then they protect their investment but the downside is we the purchaser pay over the odds for our homes.The plus side of inflating house prices is that those of us who own homes will benefit from the inflated price and those who have existing mortgages will be insentivised to continue payments and not default.So heads you lose, tails you lose

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THE National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) says house prices here have further to fall as disposable incomes also decline.

The views are revealed in a wide-ranging review of the economy published by the NTMA last night which was shown to prospective investors during roadshows to drum up support ahead of this week’s successful bond swap deal.

“Residential property prices have further to fall but the commercial market has probably bottomed,” the review says.

The NTMA is the state agency responsible for managing the national debt and controls NAMA, the biggest owner of commercial property in the country and the biggest owner of residential property after the State.

Resilient

The outlook for the property sector was part of a mostly upbeat economic assessment. The NTMA said the economy grew last year for the first time since 2007, thanks to exports that have so far remained resilient despite the global slowdown.

Economic conditions are improving but the NTMA warns the success seen so far could be under threat. Domestic demand may continue to fall this year, hurting the chances of general growth in the economy, the report adds.

It notes families are getting poorer and disposable income has fallen every year since 2008 due to rising taxes and falling wages. Household wealth is back to 2003 levels.

The NTMA says the reduction in the interest rate Europe charges for bailout loans helped make those kind of trends easier to swallow for struggling families. But even with Ireland doing all it can to hit fiscal targets, the euro crisis could still prove a threat to exports, and therefore to the entire recovery.

On a more upbeat note the NTMA says that Ireland is now living within its means — with a current account surplus. The banks have been successfully recapitalised, the threat to the 12.5pc corporation tax rate is gone and the economy has started to become more competitive. The presentation says NAMA could make an operating profit of €600m for 2011.

- Donal O’Donovan

Irish Independent

March 2012

New figures show that residential property prices nationwide fell by 17.8% in the year to February, the biggest fall since December 2009.

The Central Statistics Office said this compares with an annual rate of 17.4% in January and a fall of 10.8% in the 12 months to February 2011.

The CSO said that residential prices fell by 2.2% in February, which compares to a drop of 1.9% in January and 1.7% the same time last year. Prices are now 49% lower than their highest level in 2007, the figures show.

The CSO figures show that residential properties in Dublin fell by 1.2% last month and are 20.3% lower than a year ago. Dublin house prices decreased by 0l7% in the month and ere 20.2% lower from a year ago, while Dublin apartment prices were 22.9% lower when compared with the same time in 2011.

The price of homes in the rest of Ireland fell by 3% in February compared to a fall of 1.5% the same time last year. Prices were 16.4% lower than in February 2011.

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The first day I went to school I played Mala and crayons  and learned to talk Irish” Na be  Ag Caint” the teacher said .So we crossed our arms and put a finger up to our lips just in case a word might get out. Weeks later when we knew our colours and were able to ask to go to the toilet in Irish .The teacher asked us what we wanted to be when we grew up .I wanted to be a firemagade and the boy beside me wanted to be one too .Some boys wanted to be army men and others wanted to be like their Daddy. We were only four and a half and already we were being assigned our destiny.

Sixth class and we could read and write and think a little for ourselves, Now with the aid of our parents and the teachers we would decide would we go to Tech or Secondary school. If you wanted to work with your hands and take a trade you went to Tech .If the teachers thought you might be smart you went to secondary .When you got your Group cert you would leave school age 15 and try to get a job or stay on to do your leaving .If you got a good leaving cert you would do the entrance exam for the civil service or the bank. Very few of the people I knew went on to university .It was the late seventies and the country was in recession there were very few jobs so emigrating was also an option head off to England or America if you could afford it just like some of our parents in the fifties

2010 school leavers are once again faced with the dilemma what to do now that they have completed their education .There are no jobs to go to .There are great further education opportunities but what is the use of being prepared for a job that does not exist ?

Debs balls will follow the end of your schooling. Digital cameras will flash and capture the moment ,the posh frock , the dickiebowed boys all smiling away enjoying the occasion .The photographs of the great occasion will be printed off and placed into the family album. Boyfriends and girlfriends will be invited to look through the album to your great embarrassment .Your first haircut, your first tooth, the photo of you in the bath, your first day at school when they started to prepare you for your future .Work hard,pay attention,  you will do well .You worked hard you paid attention .You left school with the intention of going to work .Working hard doing well only to find that while you kept you side of the bargain others did not. There is no work and not for the first time, your fathers and your fathers  fathers all experienced something similar but nobody seems to have learned any lesson from the past. How much of this situation is of our own making? Just look around your living room – is there anything in the room made in Ireland? The answer is probably nothing .Now repeat the process for every room in the house the answer is most likely the same. Some of the best furniture in the world is made in Navan but we insist in going to IKEA or Argos. We never ask where was that made. The Irish-made produce may be a little more expensive but its cheaper in the long run .As long as we keep people in work we create wealth that filters through the economy and creates more jobs . At the moment the only Irish made product we seem to want to purchase is sandwiches.

The school photo of you sitting at your desk, arms crossed smiling through a toothless grin, school book opened thinking to yourself when I grow up I want to be a photograph man or a teacher cos I love Miss .The school book has now been replaced by a news paper looking through situations vacant or an application for a visa or unemployment benefit. They say as we get older we get more like our parents.